093
FXUS61 KBOX 252316
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
716 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly quiet through Wednesday night.
- A round or two of scattered showers & thunderstorms possible Thu
afternoon into Fri along with summerlike humidity as well.
- Mainly dry and seasonable weather follows for the weekend.
Temps may trend above normal early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly quiet through Wednesday night.
Surface high pressure continues to influence southern New England`s
weather as it builds in from the Ohio valley this afternoon. Even
so, a lingering mid level trough/cold pool aloft is leading to a
smattering of diurnal cumulus and hit-and-miss showers over
western/central areas. With sunset these showers will
dissipate and cloudcover quickly recede. Tonight expect clear skies
with light winds and patchy fog in the interior where dewpoint
depressions may be near 0. Wednesday is dry and sunny with mid level
ridging building in. As this happens, the low/mid level flow backs
to the SW 850mb temps bump up from ~11C to 12-13C pushing high
temperatures a few degrees warmer on Wednesday, into the upper
70s/low 80s with cooler temps along the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A round or two of scattered showers & thunderstorms
possible Thu afternoon into Fri along with summerlike humidity as well.
The model guidance is in fairly good agreement in an approaching
shortwave trough/cold front late in the work week. Out ahead of this
disturbance...S-SW flow will result in the return of low level
moisture and summerlike humidity. While specific timing remains
uncertain...the potential exists for a round or two of scattered
showers and thunderstorms sometime Thu afternoon/night into Fri. The
CSU machine learning probabilities also indicate a low risk for
severe weather/heavy rainfall. That is basically climatology for an
approaching shortwave this time of year. But the question remains
does the forcing/instability lineup favorably for that potential to
be realized along with various mesoscale processes. It is just too
early to determine that at this time. Nonetheless...certainly
something to watch over the next day or two.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and seasonable weather follows for the
weekend. Temps may trend above normal early next week.
High pressure builds in behind the departing shortwave/cold front
for the upcoming weekend. The result will be mainly dry and
seasonable weather Sat into Sun. Ensembles indicating upper level
flow may become more westerly early next week allowing for temps to
trend above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. Calm/Light WNW winds. Brief localized patchy ground fog
possible late in the typically prone locations.
Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR. Light W-SW winds with local seabreezes developing along
portions of the very immediate coast.
Wednesday night...High confidence.
VFR. Calm/light SW winds. Patchy ground fog possible late in
the typically prone locations.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Sea breeze will develop
in the 14z/15z time frame on Wednesday.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday night...High confidence.
Fairly quiet boating conditions through the first half of this
week as high pressure develops across the Midwest before
expanding toward the waters off the coast of southern New
England. Gusty southwest flow develops today, with gusts around
20 kt. Conditions improve overnight into early Wednesday
morning as winds shift to the northwest.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW/Frank
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...BW/Frank
