470
FXUS61 KBOX 250546
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
146 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend continues with unseasonably mild conditions
Thursday. Widely scattered showers possible tonight into
Thursday.
- A strong cold front brings rainy and cooler conditions Friday
into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming trend continues with unseasonably mild
conditions Thursday. Widely scattered showers possible tonight
into Thursday.
Weak subsidence behind a departing northern stream shortwave and
high pressure to our south will bring dry conditions through today.
Despite sunshine giving way to increasing clouds today, persistent
south to southwest winds will continue the warming trend.
Another weak shortwave passes by tonight. Not looking like there is
much low level humidity to work with. As a result, expecting widely
scattered light rain showers after midnight into Thursday. The
greatest risk will be north of the Mass Pike, simply due to
proximity to the mid level forcing. Increasing risk for light rain
later int he day as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Becoming unseasonably mild Thursday as increasing SW flow develops
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect breezy conditions with 20-
30 mph gusts at times.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front
brings rainy and cooler conditions Friday into the weekend.
A strong cold front approaches southern New England Thursday night
into early Friday morning, bringing another widespread, soaking
rain. Ensemble guidance is currently indicating a surge of moist
air ahead of the front, enhancing PWATs to 1.10"-1.25"... roughly
200-250 percent of normal for this time of year. Currently thinking
this rain would last through the night and into a good portion of
Friday morning, but it`s still a little early to nail down exact
timing... regardless, southern New England could potentially see up
to 0.5" of rain.
Post-FROPA on Friday, a drier airmass will push into the region.
Winds pick up as the boundary layer becomes well mixed throughout
the day, with 20-30mph winds possible. As this drier airmass moves
through, it will also bring dropping 850mb temps with ensembles
indicating temps dropping down to -16C... roughly a -17C temperature
anomaly. High temps likely occur early Friday morning before falling
throughout the day with strong cold air advection. Highs struggle
into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Saturday and Sunday before
rebounding into the low 50s for the start of the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
VFR. SW winds increasing to 10-20 kt this afternoon.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Cigs lowering to MVFR after midnight with a few showers
possible. SW winds 5-15 kt.
Thursday...Moderate confidence.
VFR. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. A few showers
possible, with a greater risk for showers late in the day
towards western MA.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.
Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Thursday...High confidence.
Winds diminishing by daybreak today. SW winds increase again
late tonight and especially Thursday. Rough seas should
redevelop across the coastal waters with a south to southwest
exposure during the day Thursday. Small Craft Advisories are
likely.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
254-255.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...Belk/FT
