050
FXUS61 KBOX 051201
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
801 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy but dry today with pleasant temperatures ahead of a
cold front.
- Drying trend and fall-like conditions return for the rest of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy but dry today with pleasant temperatures
ahead of a cold front.
A deepening low continues to track east across the James Bay
and into Quebec today. Despite the cold front pushing through
New England later this afternoon, clearing skies and full sun
will help raise temperatures are expected into the upper 60s
today. This front will also bring breezy conditions, with wind
gusts on the order of 20 to 30 mph, especially over the waters
and higher elevation regions, through tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Drying trend and fall-like conditions return
for the rest of the week.
The drying trend continues through the rest of the week as a
strong high pressures system builds in Tuesday over the Great
Lakes. This high brings a significantly cooler airmass into New
England, with the latest guidance indicating the 540mb line
sinking well into northern New England, likely as far south as
southern NH, by late tonight or early Tuesday morning. 850mb
temperatures drop to near 0C, likely below 0C in the higher
elevations. Most guidance also suggests 925mb temps drop to as
low as +1C or +2C. This would support surface highs near 60
degrees with nighttime lows possibly falling into the 30s
through Wednesday. Tuesday night looks to be the coldest of the
season due to radiational cooling from clear skies and low
winds.
A brief warm-up to the low 70s may be possible late week as the
high pushes east Thursday. Otherwise, prolonged west-southwest
flow will mark the return of drier conditions and seasonable
temperatures to southern New England for the end of the week.
Seeing some potential in the global models for some showers
toward the end of the weekend, but given the timeframe, it`ll
remain something to keep an eye on.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Monday and Monday Night...High confidence.
Lingering IFR/MVFR ceilings and patchy FG through this morning
improving to VFR 13-16Z. Gusty W to WNW winds 20-30 kts developing
by early afternoon with the highest gusts occurring in the
18-23Z for most terminals and 21-04Z for Cape terminals. Gusts
decrease this evening, diminishing for the interior terminals.
Low end gusts continue at terminals like BOS.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence
in timing. MVFR ceilings this morning becoming SCT 13-14Z. Lower
SCT decks possible through the remainder of the morning.
Enhanced WNW winds/gusts develop around 16Z at 20-30 kts. The
higher end of these gusts are more likely to occur between
18-22Z as a boundary pushes through.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
Some lingering showers off Cape Cod push further offshore
through sunrise. Gusty west winds then develop with the frontal
passage this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
for wind gusts up to 25-28 kt. In addition, seas should build to
5-7 feet across the outer coastal waters. Seas and winds begin
to diminish late Tuesday afternoon.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ230-236.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn/Mensch
MARINE...McMinn
