Area Forecast Discussion

916 FXUS61 KBOX 062330 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 630 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over New England tonight before moving offshore Friday. A cold front should bring some showers Friday night into Saturday, followed by dry and mild weather Saturday afternoon, before another cold front brings more showers Sunday. Colder weather will follow much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Updated at 1 PM Thu: Key Messages: * Clearing and cold tonight. * Turning breezy and milder Friday. Strong NW flow aloft and cold advection has led to diurnal cloudiness across most of region and even a few sprinkles as seen on radar. These will last for a few more hours and then diminish by late afternoon as high pressure builds over New England tonight. Clearing skies and lighter winds will result in a cold night with temperatures falling well down into 20s away from coast and into 30s elsewhere. Broad upper ridge remains in place most of day Friday which should keep any showers to our west, while increasing SW winds bring in milder air as surface high moves offshore. Forecast soundings show potential for 20-25 mph gusts, especially near coast Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Updated at 1 PM Thu: Key Messages: * Couple of rounds of showers this weekend. * Dry and mild in between Saturday afternoon. Fast upper flow continues this weekend which will bring two weather systems through region. First system tracks through eastern Great Lakes and pushes a cold front through New England Friday night into Saturday morning accompanied by a period of showers. Not looking at much in way of rainfall, most likely 0.25" or less, as best dynamics remain well to our NW and system remains progressive. Saturday afternoon actually looks like pick of weekend for outdoor activities as airmass behind front isn`t cold at all, with 850mb temperatures in the +1 to +6C range, and that supports highs in the 50s and lower 60s with sunshine and W winds. Second system follows quickly sometime Sunday into early Monday as primary low tracks through eastern Great Lakes and a weaker secondary low tracks near or just offshore of southern New England. At this time range we`re seeing usual differences in onset of showers, with global models being a bit faster than higher-res models. Either way, rainfall once again does not appear to be much, something like another 0.25 to 0.50". One other concern Sunday afternoon is some minor coastal flooding along the Sound side of Cape Cod (Falmouth) due to lingering high astronomical tides and possible brisk S/SE flow ahead of secondary low. However, that is highly dependent upon the exact track of the low so there is a lot of uncertainty right now. It`s more likely that the storm tide stays below flood stage but something to keep an eye on. Nantucket is also showing a similar potential for borderline minor flooding but that is more unlikely given S/SE flow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Updated at 1 PM Thu: Key Messages: * Turning colder next week with below normal temperatures. * Dry overall aside from some flurries/sprinkles near Berkshires. Much advertised pattern change to colder weather is still on track for much of next week as closed upper low rotates around Great Lakes and sets up broad trough across eastern states. Core of coldest air arrives Tue when daytime temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper 30s in the higher terrain and 40s elsewhere, then recover into the 40s to around 50 for the rest of the week. Pattern also looks to be dry, although with strong W/NW flow aloft we could see some lake effect snow showers possibly survive the trip over Berkshires, bringing flurries or sprinkles, especially to locations near the east slopes. Additionally, there will likely be bands of rain showers off Cape Cod and Nantucket, but W/NW flow should keep these focused offshore. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: High confidence. VFR. Isolated pockets of LLWS with values likely staying below 35kts before weakening quickly after 00z. NW winds will continue to diminish this afternoon before dropping below 10kt tonight and becoming W. SW winds expected Fri with 20-25kt gusts in the afternoon, especially near coast. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Veterans Day: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Updated 1 PM Thu: Lowered remaining Gale Warnings on outer waters to Small Craft Advisories as winds continue to diminish, but expect SCA conditions through this evening on most of the waters, but through tonight on outer waters due to lingering 5 ft+ seas. High pressure building over New England tonight will move offshore Friday, resulting in increasing SW winds that should reach 25kt Friday afternoon and Friday night, with a low chance of seeing marginal 34kt Gales on south coastal waters. Not enough confidence though for Gale headlines right now. Outlook /Monday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Veterans Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JWD NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...FT/JWD MARINE...JWD NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion