222
FXUS61 KBOX 111046
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
546 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow gradually exits the region early this morning. Mainly dry
for rest of today and Thursday with the exception of a few
light snow showers.
- Quiet pattern overall with periods of nuisance light snow and
minimal impacts. Temperatures moderate to near seasonable
norms. Attention turns to the late weekend for a potential
coastal storm, but forecast confidence remains low due track
uncertainty.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Snow gradually exits the region early this morning.
Mainly dry for rest of today and Thursday with the exception of a
few light snow showers.
The clipper system is expected to exit the region early this
morning, ending the bulk of the snow/wintry precipitation generally
from west to east between 1-7 AM. Dry air moves into the upper and
mid-levels (DZG) tapering off snow rates while the system shifts
offshore. Still can`t rule out patchy freezing drizzle/snizzle for a
brief period early this morning if moisture ends up lingering in the
low levels.
Mainly dry conditions expected for the rest of today. Drier air and
cold advection will allow for mixing of gusty NW winds to the
surface today with gusts 20-30 mph. We`ll tap into some mid-level
moisture off the Great Lakes toward the afternoon which will bring
in cloud cover. NW winds may favor some upslope for the Berkshires
for light snow showers. A few showers may make it over on the east
side with a coating at most.
Thursday AM, an inverted trough tied to a departed surface low
shifts south across the southern New England coastal waters. This
will provide a brief period of ascent to support light snow showers
mainly for the outer Cape, but potentially brushing Cape Ann. Model
guidance continues to show more of an offshore brush with higher
probabilities for a light accumulation of snow confined to the outer
Cape. Model soundings show a period of modest lift/moisture within
the DGZ. Enough to support a light accumulation (< 1") of snow
Thursday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Quiet pattern overall with periods of nuisance light
snow and minimal impacts. Temperatures moderate to near seasonable
norms. Attention turns to the late weekend for a potential coastal
storm, but forecast confidence remains low due track uncertainty.
Surface high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS into the end
of the week, maintaining seasonable temperatures. An upper-level low
and northern-stream shortwave cross New England Friday night into
early Saturday, bringing a low (256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch
