Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 311017
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues west-southwestward to 
near 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 02S43W along the 
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing S of 04N
and W of 14W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the 
northern Gulf. A trough is setting up over the west coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula. Data from platforms in the northwest Gulf show 
areas of fog reducing visibility to 2 to 4 miles. Advisories are 
in effect for dense fog along the coast of Louisiana and the 
Florida Panhandle. Fresh to strong winds are probably ongoing east
of the trough along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Gentle to moderate SE breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4
ft over the eastern Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft over most of the western 
Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
today, producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to 
moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink into the NW 
and N central Gulf coastal waters tonight, and extend from the 
Florida Big Bend to SE Texas by Tue morning before lifting north 
and dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across the
Gulf Tue night through Fri to support fresh to strong SE to S 
winds across most of the basin and moderate to rough seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is resulting in fresh to 
strong trades over the central and northeastern sections of the 
basin. Trades elsewhere are in the gentle to moderate range as 
seen in earlier scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 8 to
9 ft north of Colombia, 3 to 6 ft in the far northwest Caribbean 
and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is 
presently observed.

For the forecast, the high pressure east of Bermuda will combine 
with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the 
middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the 
Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Large E swell will continue to 
impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of
the week, maintaining rough seas. High pressure will relocate N 
of the Caribbean Sea Wed afternoon through Fri night and bring a 
significant increase in winds and seas across most of the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure dominates the western Atlantic, anchored by
1028 mb high pressure just east of Bermuda. This pattern is 
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas 
over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. Strong winds and seas to 9
ft are noted N of Hispaniola S of 21N between 71W-74W. Farther 
east, 1008 mb low pressure is centered west of Madeira, with a 
trough extending from the low to 23N20W. Fresh N winds and 8 ft 
seas are noted west of the trough to 28W, and north of 27N. 
Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere 
east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure E of Bermuda 
extends a ridge across the basin. The high will drift slowly 
eastward and weaken through tonight. As a result, winds and seas 
will diminish modestly across the forecast area through that 
period. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast late
Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones early Wed. High 
pressure will then build southward again across the region Wed 
night through Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly 
across the waters S of 24N. 

$$
ERA