Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 062100
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Nov 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A large and long-period NW swell event 
is propagating across the north-central Atlantic waters, with 
seas greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of a line from
26N55W to 30N40W. Seas are currently peaking near 15 ft along 
31N. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will 
propagate across the waters N of 26N between 30W and 55W through 
Fri before subsiding below 12 ft. Mariners should use extreme 
caution over these waters, depending on vessel type and cargo. 
Additional pulses of NW swell are expected to reach the waters E 
of 55W by Fri night, briefly building seas to 12-13 ft N of 30N 
between 40W and 50W through Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues westward to near 06N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N30W to 04N39W to near 06.5N54W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N
between 12W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 02N to 08N between 23W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low near 25N92W to the Bay
of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are 
over the central Gulf N of the low. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 1-3 ft, prevail elsewhere.  

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are 
expected over the north-central Gulf, north and east of the trough
axis, through late tonight as the trough approaches the Texas 
coast. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will then develop 
over the western basin on Fri and continue through Sat as a 
complex low pressure system moves over the south-central U.S. 
A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Sun and 
progress southeastward through the basin into early next week. 
Widespread strong N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected 
behind the front, and gale force winds and very rough seas will be
possible offshore of Veracruz by early Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with gentle
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, moderate trade winds and moderate seas will 
prevail over the Caribbean through Fri afternoon, with winds 
pulsing to fresh speeds in the south-central basin and offshore of
southern Hispaniola. Winds will freshen over the central and 
eastern Caribbean Fri night into early next week as a surface 
trough moves westward through the basin, and high pressure builds 
to the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be possible
in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, rough seas in N swell 
are expected over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by late 
tonight. A new E to SE swell will support rough seas through the 
Atlantic Passages this weekend into early next week. A strong cold
front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean early next 
week, leading to widespread fresh to strong NE winds and building 
seas in the wake of the front. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a NW
swell event that is impacting the central Atlantic waters with 
very rough seas.

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N35W and extends to
30N37W where it transitions to a stationary front that extends 
across the central Bahamas to near the coast of central Cuba. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 
20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 26N40W. Light to gentle winds
cover much of the discussion waters N of 20N and W of 30W. 
Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Aside from the area 
of 12 ft or greater seas discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section
above, Seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a line from 
21N63W to 30N35W, and well as the waters N of 20N and E of 23W. 
Elsewhere, seas of 4-7 ft generally prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N swell east of 65W 
will expand southeastward to the waters north of 20N by tonight. 
A new NW swell associated with a storm system passing north of the
area will reinforce rough seas east of 65W Fri morning through 
Sat morning. Moderate or weaker winds are expected over the waters
through much of Fri, with occasionally fresh E winds developing 
south of 25N Fri night. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds may 
develop offshore of Florida late this weekend ahead of a cold 
front moving through the southeastern U.S. The cold front will 
push off the coast early next week and progress southeastward into
the central Atlantic, leading to fresh to strong winds and 
building seas behind the front. 

$$
AL