Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241005
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Periods of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over
the southern Caribbean and into Nicaragua and Costa Rica through
at least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical 
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast 
to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern 
Nicaragua is expected to observe its rainfall maxima on Wednesday.
Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, moving 
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the monsoon trough. 

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 64W, south of 17N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Some
shower activity is near the wave axis. The wave appears to enhance
convection over eastern Venezuela. 

A second tropical is over the central Caribbean with axis along
73W,south of 18N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 13N to 15N between 70W and 76W.
This wave is forecast to reach Central America on Wed, increasing
the likelihood of showers and tstms there. 

The tropical wave previously located along 79W is not longer 
discernible on TPW product and satellite imagery, and now appears
to be part of the broad circulation currently observed over the 
far eastern Pacific and the SW Caribbean.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W, then continues southwestward to 09N31W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N31W to 07N45W to the coast of Guyana near
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 
10N between 13W and 20W, and south of 08N west of 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf
region producing in general gentle to moderate E to SE winds. The
exception are fresh to strong E winds to the W of the Yucatan 
Penninsula due to local effects associated with a thermal trough, 
and in the Straits of Florida where scatterometer data indicate 
fresh to strong E winds, particularly from the coast of western 
Cuba to about 24.5N between 81W and 84W. Seas are 6 ft within 
these winds. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in 
the NE Gulf. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed 
along the coast of Mexico, particularly between Tampico and 
Veracruz, including also the western Bay of Campeche. A diffluent 
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. 

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters 
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and 
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula 
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops 
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere 
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh 
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, on either side
of the Lesser Antilles, including waters between the islands, and
E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W where rough seas persist. 
These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low. Moderate to fresh trades 
and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Convection
continues to flare-up over the SW Caribbean in association with a
northward displacement of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough and a
broad area of low pressure extending from the SW Caribbean into
the eastern Pacific region.

For the forecast, the pressure between the Atlantic ridge and the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades 
across most of the east and central Caribbean through the week. 
Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in 
the Gulf of Venezuela by Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are 
expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds 
and moderate seas will prevail. By late this week, winds may 
increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of 
low pressure currently located a few hundred miles offshore of 
Central America. This system has the potential of tropical cyclone
formation. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1019 mb gale center
(Invest 90L) located north of the forecast area near 35N51W to
near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection
is near the trough axis, mainly from 23N to 30N. High pressure of 
1029 mb located SW of the Azores near 34N35W dominates the remainder
of the forecast area, with another high pressure of 1023 mb situated
E of northern Florida near 30N78W. Scatterometer and altimeter data
indicate fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the tropical 
Atlantic between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, and N of 20N E of 
35W, including between the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong
E winds are noted N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, including 
approaches to the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough 
will dissipate today, and the Atlantic high pressure will then 
extend westward towards the Florida peninsula. Under this weather 
pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally 
rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with 
gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to 
locally strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through 
Fri. 

$$ 
GR