Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Expires:No;;370810
AXNT20 KNHC 292051
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC FRI May 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2010 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave near 59W south of 15N is moving 
westward toward the eastern Caribbean at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical
wave may be enhancing a few thunderstorms inland over northwestern
Guyana and northeastern Venezuela along the sea breeze. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W through western 
Panama, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active along the Caribbean coasts of western 
Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic over the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and extends southwestward to 06N24W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N24W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 03N to 06N between 12W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving eastward between the
mouth of the Mississippi River the Big Bend area of Florida. 
Areas of smoke from agricultural and forest fires over southern 
Mexico are causing slight limitations to visibility, primarily 
over the western Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are 
possible over the Bay of Campeche, but gentle SE winds are noted 
elsewhere. Wave heights are 3 to 5 ft in the Bay of Campeche and 2
to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend as a trough 
develops daily and moves westward. Locally strong winds will be 
possible tonight. Generally moderate E to SE winds are likely over
the central and western Gulf of America through Fri, with gentle 
to locally moderate SE to SW winds in the eastern basin. Moderate 
to fresh W winds are expected to develop Fri afternoon in the 
northeastern Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving through the 
southern U.S. The front will push into the basin late Fri into 
Sat, with moderate N winds expected in the wake of the front Sat 
morning. Looking ahead, high pressure is slated to build over the 
northeastern Gulf Sun into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Earlier recent scatterometer satellite image confirmed fresh to 
strong trade winds off Colombia, and a large area of moderate to 
fresh winds elsewhere across the south-central basin. These winds 
are supported by a strong subtropical ridge over the western 
Atlantic. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed seas of 7 to
10 across the central Caribbean, with maximum seas off Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh winds are also ongoing over the Gulf of 
Honduras, where wave heights are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate 
breezes are evident elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas. In addition to 
the thunderstorms off Panama and Costa Rica, a few showers and 
thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Cuba. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will occur 
across the southwestern and central Caribbean through Fri as 
ridging prevails over the western Atlantic. Winds may pulse to 
near-gale force late tonight offshore of northwestern Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Pulsing fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas are then expected across the eastern and central basin
this weekend as high pressure drifts eastward into the central 
Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend. Looking ahead, a 
tropical wave, currently analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles, 
will trek westward into the central Caribbean this weekend. 
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will accompany this wave, and 
gusty winds and rough seas are expected near this activity.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends from weak 1019 mb low pressure centered
near 31N49W to 26N60W and then is stationary to 29N72W. Fresh to
strong SW are noted within 180 nm south of the low and east of 
the front. Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1025 mb 
high pressure near 34N26W to south of the low pressure near 
24N50W. Gentle breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere 
north of 20N. Fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are ongoing 
south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop offshore
of Florida and north of the Bahamas by early Fri as a strengthening
pressure gradient develops between high pressure in the eastern 
Gulf of America and a cold front moving through the southern U.S. 
Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected north of 28N 
and west of 65W by early Sat as the front pushes offshore into the
western Atlantic. Winds will turn to the W and slowly diminish 
behind the front Sat through Sat night, before the front weakens 
and lifts northeastward on Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade
winds will pulse south of 23N through Fri. Looking ahead, high 
pressure is slated to build over the central and western Atlantic 
Sun into next week. 

$$
Christensen