Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160954
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high 
pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force across the 
waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very 
rough seas will prevail with these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 21W, south of
16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 08N to 13N and east of 23W and remains disorganized.
Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 
mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a less 
conducive environment, and further development is not expected. 
The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 
days.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1013 mb low 
pres near 12N21W to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 09N34W to 
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon
trough between 23W-29W, and along the ITCZ between 46W-52W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1022 mb high pressure system positioned over the northern Gulf 
near 29N88W. The high supports moderate to fresh E-SE winds 
across much of the western and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in these 
waters. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail. A few showers are present north of Yucatan and in 
the eastern Bay of Campeche, while drier conditions are noted in 
the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the 
Yucatan Peninsula each night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight
to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this
weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual 
development of this system is possible while it moves slowly 
northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and near the coast of the
southeastern United States early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section for 
more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean
forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central 
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in 
the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these
waters. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the 
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to 
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas are prevalent. 

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with abundant tropical moisture
is generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, particularly in the Gulf
of Honduras. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely with this convective activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and the Colombian low will support pulsing NE winds to
gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat
night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas
will prevail across the central Caribbean into early next week. 
East winds will pulse fresh to strong each evening in the Gulf of
Honduras and Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough along 76W and north of 24W is producing a
scattered showers west of 72W and north of 22N. The tropical 
Atlantic is under the influence of broad high pressure. Moderate 
to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 
the SE Bahamas and north of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Moderate 
easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and 
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far 
eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong and seas of 5-8 ft are noted 
north of the monsoon trough and east of 23W. Fresh to strong SW 
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough 
and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain
dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will 
support moderate to fresh trades south of 25N, with gentle winds 
to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night 
offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. 

$$
ERA