Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 142328
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 07.5N17.5W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07.5N17.5W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 03N to 14N between 20W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from south Florida through the central
Gulf into south Texas. Farther south, a 1013 mb low is centered 
in the Bay of Campeche, and a trough extends eastward into the 
Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier scatterometer satellite imagery 
indicated that moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds were 
occurring across the basin, with locally strong E winds noted 
offshore of southeastern Texas. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted via 
buoy data across much of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure building southward toward the 
basin will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the northern 
Gulf. Low pressure may develop over the west-central or NW Gulf 
Sun, and enhance winds to near gale-force over portions of the NW 
and north-central basin through Mon. Strong to near gale-force N 
winds will also funnel down the NE coast of Mexico, including 
offshore Veracruz, for the start of next week. Fresh to strong NE 
to E winds are then likely to continue across the NE Gulf into the
middle of next week as a tight pressure gradient prevails. Rough 
seas will build in association with these strong winds, and may 
impact portions of the northern and western basin well into next 
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are occurring across the eastern 
Caribbean, generally east of 70W, as a tight pressure gradient 
prevails between low pressure over northern Colombia and a 
stationary front over the NW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
noted via buoy data in this region. The stationary front extends 
from central Cuba westward toward the Yucatan Strait, and moderate
NE winds are occurring near this feature. Light to gentle winds 
and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades over the 
southeastern Caribbean today will transition to the south-central 
basin Sun, then increase in speed starting Mon. Moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds will prevail over the northwestern 
Caribbean into Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W southwestward to central Cuba, 
and a pre-frontal trough is noted to the east, where it is 
producing scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms. Strong to 
near-gale force winds and rough seas are noted N of 24N E of the 
front to 55W. A secondary front extends from 31N68W to deep south 
Florida. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas prevail 
west of this front. Elsewhere W of 65W, moderate to fresh winds 
and moderate seas are noted. The remainder of the waters N of 10N 
are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1025 mb high 
centered near 30N29W. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are 
found N of 25N and E of 43W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N62W 
to Cuba will be reinforced by a secondary front tonight, then 
reach from near 31N57W to just north of Hispaniola Sat. N of 25N, 
expect strong SW winds and scattered thunderstorms ahead of the 
front, with strong W to NW winds behind it. By Mon, the front will
begin to weaken over SE portions of the waters. High pressure 
building southward toward the region will lead to a tightening 
pressure gradient and increasing NE to E winds in the vicinity of 
the Bahamas Mon, and these winds and associated rough seas will 
expand in area, especially northward and eastward, through the 
middle of next week. 

$$
ADAMS