Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 022124
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force S or
SW winds, veering to W or SW in Madeira from 03/00 UTC through at
least 04/00 UTC, and S or SW in Agadir from 03/12 UTC through
03/21 UTC. Rough to very rough seas will likely accompany these 
winds. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas 
Forecast listed on their website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11.5N15.5W and
extends southwestward to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N24W to
02S34W to northeast of the coast of Brazil at 01N43.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 08W and
13.5W, and from 01N to 05N between 42W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic through 
the northern Gulf of America. This pattern is supporting fresh to
strong SE to S winds north of 21N and west of 87W, and moderate to
fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 10 ft north of 22N and
west of 88W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is
noted over the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will increase to near-
gale on Thu west of 85W. These winds will support building rough 
seas in this region through the end of the week. East of 85W, 
including the Florida Straits, fresh to strong winds will prevail 
into the weekend before diminishing. The next front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near gale winds and 
rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front on Sun, then 
diminish early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the 
area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to
strong trades in the central Caribbean, with similar winds near
the Gulf of Honduras and east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds are
mainly moderate to fresh elsewhere, except weaker to the west of
Haiti and in the Caribbean south of 11N or so. Seas are 7 to 10 ft
in the Central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5 to
8 ft in the NW Caribbean west of 85W, and 3 to 6 ft across the
remainder of the waters. Other than some isolated showers and
thunderstorms, no significant convection is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE winds and rough to very 
rough seas offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela will 
prevail through the weekend. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the 
Gulf of Honduras will increase to near-gale force speeds, with 
rough seas beginning on Thu and continue through the weekend. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will strengthen with 
building rough seas dominating the basin Thu into the weekend. 
Large E swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters and 
Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning in 
effect for the Meteo-France area. 

The Atlantic basin is dominated by 1026 mb high pressure centered
near 32N43W, with the subtropical ridge axis extending westward 
toward the southeastern United States. A complex low pressure
system between the Canary Islands and the Azores is supporting
fresh to near gale-force winds north of 29N between 21W and 34W.
Associated large seas of 8 to 14 ft cover the waters north of 24N
between the Canary Islands and 40W. Moderate to fresh trades with
6 to 9 ft seas prevail across the majority of the waters south of
22N. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are 
elsewhere, except moderate to fresh winds from the Bahamas to the
Greater Antilles and through the Straits of Florida. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
area. The building high will support fresh to strong E to SE 
winds and rough seas across the waters south of 25N, including 
through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean, into the 
weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky