Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150340
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Sep 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from
01N to 20N, with a 1012 mb low where the tropical wave intersects
the monsoon trough. This system is moving westward at around 10 
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 16N between 30W and 40W. Although dry 
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day 
or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter 
part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 
15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance 
of development within the next 48 hours and a high chance within 
the next 7 days.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 01N
to 20N. It is moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N 
between 45W and 50W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W south 
of 20N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 15N to 17N between 65W and 68W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues 
southwestward through a 1012 mb low near 10.5N35W to 10N40W. The 
ITCZ continues from 10N40W to 10N47W. It resumes from 10N50W to
10N61W. Aside from convection described in the tropical waves 
section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is noted from 04N to 10N east of 30W, and from 05N to 09N between
40W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow prevails. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.  

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through 
the week supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Winds will 
freshen in the N-central and NW Gulf Mon night as the high gets 
reinforced. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse offshore 
the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Winds may increase to moderate 
to fresh in the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida by Wed night due to
a passing tropical wave just to the S combined with a stationary 
front or coastal trough off the SE U.S. coast. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate winds are elsewhere E of 80W. Over the western Caribbean,
gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range E
of 80W, and 1-2 ft W of 80W. 

For the forecast, a tropical wave in the central Caribbean will 
move through the western Caribbean Tue night through Thu night. 
Expect fresh winds over the central Caribbean Mon through Tue in 
the wake of the tropical wave. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will accompany the wave. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse in the S-central waters through mid-week. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate trades, and mostly moderate seas will remain through 
the week, except slight to moderate seas in the NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends over the western waters, from 31N74W to
the Straits of Florida. Moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail
W of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered
near 37N34W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters N of
15N and E of 50W, where seas are in the 4-7 ft range. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are noted. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will weaken through Mon.
Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure will generally maintain 
moderate winds and seas elsewhere across the region through the 
week. A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is 
likely to develop into a tropical depression during the middle to 
latter part of this week as the system moves west- northwestward 
over the central tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, 
expect increasing winds and building seas over the southeastern 
waters by the end of the week. 

$$
AL