Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 212324
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jan 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2324 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: 
A 1015 mb low is analyzed near 25N92W. This low is expected to
gradually move east-southeastward across the Gulf this evening. N
to NE winds north of the low are already exceeding gale-force over
the N and W Gulf, with areas of strong gales extending out roughly
220 nm to the north and west of the low. This morning
scatterometer pass also indicated an area of storm-force winds
offshore Tampico from 22N to 23.5N and west of 96.5W. As this low
and attendant cold front push farther eastward, gale-force NW to
NE winds with gusts to storm-force will spread to the central Gulf
and western Bay of Campeche by tonight. Storm force winds are also
expected to develop off of Veracruz, Mexico in the next few hours.
These winds will drop below storm force tonight but gale force
winds will continue through Wed morning. Seas under the strongest
winds will peak at 18 to 24 ft, mainly across areas S of 27N and W
of 89W. Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across the
basin due to the expansive area of storm andd gale-force winds 
and a large area of very rough to high seas in the area. 

W Atlantic Gale Warning: 
A stationary front extends from 31N66W to the South Florida coast
where it connects to the Gulf 1019 mb low pressure system. This 
system will push off the Florida coast as a cold front this 
evening and extend from near 31N72W to western Cuba by Wed morning
and from 31N61W to central Cuba by Thu morning. The front will 
stall and weaken by Fri. This front will be followed by gale- 
force north winds and rough seas north of 24N and W of about 70W 
this evening through Wed morning. 


Carribbean Sea Gale Warning: 
A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean early Wed morning, 
bringing near-gale force NW winds and rough seas to the area. This
front will enhance the pressure gradient across the central 
Caribbean causing the ongoing fresh to strong winds across the 
central Caribbean to briefly become gale force near the coast of 
Colombia on Wed night. Moderate to high seas are expected with 
these winds. These conditions will improve quickly as the front 
weakens on Wed night, with the rough seas subsiding on Thu.


Central and Eastern Atlantic Large Swell: 
A 988mb low near 39N17W extends a cold front into the discussion
waters, entering the region near 31N12W and extending to 19N35W.
The cold front then continues westward as a shear line to 18N51W.
The pressure gradient between this low and a 1032 mb high near
32N47W is supporting moderate to fresh, locally strong N to NW
winds N of the cold front. Seas behind both the front and shear
line and E of 48W are currently 12-20 ft in N swell, with the
highest seas north of 26N between 21W and 30W. By Wednesday
morning, this area of large N swell will expand to cover areas E
of 53W and N of 16N, while gradually lowering with seas of 12-17 
ft anticipated. Seas will gradually subside below 12 ft across 
much of the region on Wednesday, with any remaining seas near or 
in excess of 12 ft confined to areas near the Canary Islands by 
Thursday morning. Seas of 12 ft or more will then diminish 
Thursday.

For more details on Storm Warning, Gale Warnings, and the 
Atlantic Swell, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast,
that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues 
to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues southwestward from 05N21W to 
0.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection associated along these 
features axises from 01N to 06N. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section about the Storm
Warning and Gale Warning in effect.

Recent observations from buys and satellite imagery depicts the 
rare ongoing event of snow and rain showers across the far 
northern Gulf in association with a cold air mass and the low 
moving across the basin. Strong to near-gale force E to NE winds 
are occurring across portions of the Gulf north and west of a line
extending from Panama City, FL to the central Bay of Campeche, 
with seas of 6-11 ft in this region. South and east of this line, 
E winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, deepening low pressure in the west-central Gulf
is producing storm force winds north of the low and along 
Tampico, Mexico. Storm force winds are also expected to develop 
off of Veracruz, Mexico in the next few hours. These winds will 
drop below storm force tonight but gale force winds will continue 
through Wed morning. High seas are currently across the western 
and central basin and will continue through Wed morning before 
slowly subsiding below 12 ft on Wed night. Seas will drop below 8 
ft by Thu. Mariners are urged to exercise extreme caution across 
the basin due to the expansive area of storm to gale-force winds 
and a large area of very rough to high seas in the area. Looking 
ahead, a surface trough is forecast to develop along the E Mexican
offshore waters by Thu evening with strong winds possibly 
reaching gale- force by Thu night and continue through Fri 
evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8-11 ft are occurring 
across much of the central and eastern basin, with localized areas
of near-gale force winds occurring off the Colombian coast. 
Moderate to fresh ENE winds and moderate seas are occurring across
the W Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the central 
Caribbean will briefly become gale force near the coast of 
Colombia on Wed night. Winds will be near gale force at night 
tonight and again Thu night through Sun night. Moderate to high 
seas are expected with these winds. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean early Wed morning, bringing near- gale force NW winds 
and rough seas to the area. These conditions will improve quickly 
as the front weakens on Wed night, with the rough seas subsiding 
on Thu. Another front will enter the NW basin on Fri, bringing 
another round of fresh to strong winds and rough seas through the 
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section about the Gale 
Warning in effect as well as the Large North Swell in the Central
and Eastern Atlantic. 

A stationary front extends from 31N66W to the South Florida coast. A
1032 mb high near 32N47W is supporting gentle to moderate NE to 
SE winds and moderate seas north of a line extending from 28N43W 
to 25N70W to the Florida Straits. South of this line, moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in residual moderate to 
large northerly swell exist north of 27N between 43W and 58W. 
For the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 20N between 35N and the 
Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas, more widespread moderate to 
strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft are present. Gentle 
to moderate NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate 
swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic east of 35W. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N66W
to the South Florida coast where it connects to the Gulf low 
pressure system. This system will push off the Florida coast as a 
cold front this evening and extend from near 31N72W to western 
Cuba by Wed morning and from 31N61W to central Cuba by Thu 
morning. The front will stall and weaken by Fri. This front will 
be followed by gale- force north winds and rough seas north of 24N
and W of about 70W this evening through Wed morning. Another low 
pressure will develop off the SE U.S. coast on Thu into Thu 
evening, with a trailing cold front reaching central Cuba. The low
will move well north of the area on Fri, with the cold front 
reaching from near 31N73W to central Cuba by Fri evening, and from
Bermuda to the Windward Passage Sat morning. Fresh to strong NW 
winds are expected in the wake of this front Fri through the 
weekend.

$$
KRV