Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 040436
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Mar 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

METEO-FRANCE Gale Warning: A low pres system analyzed near 31N13W
1005 mb, is generating gale-force NW winds across the areas of 
Canarias and Madeira. These conditions will continue through late 
tonight. The low is expected to move SE within the next 24 hours 
while weakening and then dissipating. Rough seas will prevail with
these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for
more information.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between 
strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low
pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale- 
force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions
of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at 
least Sat night. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due 
to the enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 07N15W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. 
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ mainly W of
20W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad surface ridging extends across the basin with generally 
quiet weather. Winds are moderate to fresh across the basin and
seas are in the moderate range, except for slight seas nearshore 
in the E Gulf.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad 
ridge southwestward into the SE U.S. into the weekend, with the 
resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE 
winds across the Gulf, except NE to E winds in the Bay of 
Campeche. Expect winds to pulse fresh to strong each night off the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning 
in the south-central Caribbean. 

No organized convection is ongoing across the area, though there
is a patch of some shower activity between Venezuela/Colombia and
Hispaniola. Otherwise, surface ridging from strong high pressure 
centered N of the area is supporting fresh to near-gale winds over
the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward 
Passage, with moderate to fresh NE winds across the lee side of 
Cuba to the NW Caribbean. Seas in the regions of highest winds are
rough, with moderate seas across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, broad Atlantic high pressure will maintain a 
ridge southwestward into Florida and the SE U.S. into the weekend 
to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through Sun. Winds offshore of Colombia will 
pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours through the 
weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in 
the lee of Cuba will continue to pulse through the forecast 
period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin 
to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very 
rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N 
Atlantic will subside modestly Thu through Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Although high pressure dominates the subtropical and tropical 
Atlantic basin, there are a few smaller weather features to note. 
The tail end of a stalled front enters the area near 31N55W and 
extends to 25N65W. Moderate deep convection is present near the 
boundary, mainly north of 24N between 50W and 62W. Fresh to 
strong NE to E winds are noted west of the boundary to near 76W 
along with rough seas. Lastly, the tail end of a cold front 
extends from Morocco from 24N16W through 21N27N to 23N36W, though 
no significant convection is occurring near that boundary per 
conventional METEOSAT satellite imagery. Fresh to strong trades 
dominate the waters southeast of a line from 31N30W to near 
Hispaniola with moderate to fresh winds across the majority of 
the remainder of the waters. As mentioned in the Special Features 
section, seas are elevated across much of the area due to long 
period swell propagating from the gale-force low near Morocco, 
with moderate seas across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will become 
diffuse tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very 
rough seas N of the front will also diminish tonight. However, 
rough seas will linger into Wed night while expanding 
southeastward and merging with easterly trade wind swell S of 25N 
and E of the Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high pressure will become 
centered over the western N Atlantic during the next few days and 
produce fresh to strong E winds mostly south of 25N. 

$$
ERA