Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 271711
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and
continues to 06N52W near the coast of French Guiana. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 28W and 48W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East 
Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and 
isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean offshore waters 
of Costa Rica, western Panama and Nicaragua.

GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Charlotte Harbor, FL, to
near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm of both sides of the front. North of the front across the Gulf
waters, N winds are fresh to strong, with building 5-8 ft seas.
Ahead of the front, moderate or weaker NE winds and 3-5 ft seas
are analyzed.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to 
extend from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico tonight,
and then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the 
cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will 
follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving 
Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in 
the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next 
cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Sat night and meander 
slowly southeastward across the NW Gulf Sun through Mon. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean currently 
supports strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia. Recently received satellite altimeter data 
indicates peak seas are to 13 ft. Fresh to strong trades are 
evident elsewhere in the central and southwestern Caribbean with 
8-13 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are analyzed in the eastern
Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas. In the northwestern Caribbean, gentle
to moderate trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate 
convection is affecting the coastal waters of Nicaragua, Costa 
Rica, and Panama, from 09N to 14N west of 79W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high 
pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW 
Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the 
SW and much of the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela, through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh trades are 
forecast elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. A
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri morning, followed 
by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is expected to stall from 
central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then gradually 
dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the far NW waters, a cold front extends from 31N76W to
Melbourne, FL. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
both sides of the front. Fresh winds are near the frontal
boundary. A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends 
southwestward from 31N38W to 26N50W. Fresh NE winds and 7-9 ft 
seas are north of the front. North of Hispaniola and on approach 
to the Windward Passage, E winds are pulsing to fresh speeds. 
Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the Atlantic waters. 
Satellite scatterometer indicates gentle to moderate trades and 
4-7 ft seas across the basin.
 
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 
1031 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the
SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E-NE winds south of 22N and in 
the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before 
diminishing on Fri. The cold front near Florida will move 
southeastward and extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits 
tonight, from 31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and
then dissipate from 31N59W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight
pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce 
increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, 
gradually diminishing from west to east Sun. 

$$
Mahoney